A worked example of how our software can manage liabilities on a football betting market.
Our model needs to know two parameters to estimate the probabilities of any outcome of the game:
- The supremacy is the expected number of home team goals minus the expected number of away team goals. For teams of equal ability this number is going to be around 0.3 (the home team advantage).
- The total goals parameters is the expected number of goals the home team scores plus the number for the away team. A typical value for a Premiership football match would be somewhere around 2.5